Literature Review
Overview
List of papers to be reviewed:
- A method review of the climate change impact on crop yield (Feng et al. 2023)
Current Questions from literature:
- What are the protocols for SIMPLE crop model inputs.
Climate and Agriculture
Crop models:
- SIMPLE model
- CliCrop: A Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Modeling Approach
- SSM-iCrop model
SIMPLE Crop Model
Overview:
- a process based crop model
- Inputs: 14 equations, 13 parameters,
Outputs:
- calibrated for 14 crops (Cereals, roots, vegetables, and fruits)
Limitations:
- Lack of response to vernalization and photoperiod effect on phenology
- Not including nutrient dynamics (Shmelev et al. 2021)
Applications and related citations:
Potential Benefits of Climate Change for Potatoes in the United States (Zhao et al. 2022):
Studied climate impact on Potatos in the United States Used 5 ensambles: 1-SIMPLE 2-CropSyst, 3-LINTUL-POTATO-DSS, 4-EPIC, and 5-DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato plus one statistical model.
Process based models for impact of temperature and CO2 on crop yield.
No limitations on water or nitrogen were assumed in the modeled potato cropping systems. A possible adaptation to a warmer climate, an earlier planting date, was considered.
Statistical: 10% yield increase per 100 ppm increase in CO2 relative to 360
Finding potato harvesting locations in USA: Crop Reporting Districts (CRDs) from the most recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) AgCensus (www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/ AgCensus/2012/)
A multi-model approach based on AgMIP protocols was used to estimate potato yield, potato transpiration, and potato nutrient uptake (N, P, K) in all cropping areas of interest in the USA through the 2021–2050 period, referred to here as the 2030s, and the 2041–2070 period, referred to as the 2050s.
The model was trained using all available observed county-level yield data for 1981–2016 from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of USDA (https://quickstats.nass. usda.gov)
Historical monthly temperature data from Processes Research by Imaging Space Mission (PRISM) (http://prism.oregonstate.edu/)/
Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium uptake were calculated based on simulated biomass and yield, using prescribed nutrient concentrations adjusted to account for nutrient dilution resulting from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Accumulated crop transpiration data from sowing to harvest was from only one crop model, CropSyst.
Protocols:
- (Nelson et al. 2018)
- (Zhao et al. 2018)
- County level data for target crop area.
- “Crop models will be parameterized with available field. experimental data.”
- No data for model parameters is given.
- Appendix: Temperature-Based Planting Date (Day of Year) + Season Length(Days) for Tomato an Potato.
Field research
Högy et al. (2013):
Impacts of Temperature Increase and Change in Precipitation Pattern on Crop Yield and Yield Quality of Barley
Metrics mentioned in the paper:
- Soil temperature - Summer precipitation - Winter precipitation - Grain weight - Aboveground biomass - Yield components - Grain yield production
Claims:
- It is unclear whether the single-factor experiments can represent the complex temperature and precipitation-changing growth environment.
- The changes in these growth factors often act as synergic events.
- The results from field-based experiments are less tested and can give us considerably different results than the chamber-based experiments.
- Barley has both industrial and human-food chain importance, and the changes in its yield impact the economy.
Research Objective:
- To conduct a field experiment on the combined impacts of temperature elevation and varying precipitation patterns on barley yield and quality traits.
Methodology:
Two levels of each of three factors: - Soil warming (T): Increase in temperature - Rainfall amount (A): Change in the seasonal pattern (less in summer, more in winter) - Rainfall frequency (F): Longer drought periods (cumulative of days between rain events)
Citations:
- Hatfield et al. (2011): The grain yield increases in response to seasonal average temperature (4 to 10 percent for a 1-degree increase)
Questions to ask:
- What is the climate group of NN?
- What are the main crops grown in this climate?
Terms to use
Crop physiology
Impacts on yield production
Quality traits
Changing temperature and precipitation regime
C_3 crops
Using ensambles: (Martre et al. 2015)
Similiar works in Regional Integrated Models
Introduction:
The aim is to find the literature providing governing equations on the relationships and impacts between cliamte change and economic sectors.
Impact of Climate on the regional economy, case study: Navajo Nation Direct impact of climate change on the economy is refered to government reduction in revenue from tax because of the reduction in the GDP. And the other one is emergency stop of operations due the extreme weahter conditions. Navajo Nation declares state of emergency due to extreme heat. There are some treshholds that define an emergancy situation, indicated by level of temperatre and humidity. (ex. tasmax>90 F\(\degree\)) ### Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States
Hartin et al. (2023) in the FrEDI model studies 6 sectors inspired by and sumerrizes the scenarios in Table 1. The integrated model is refered as biophysical impacts of climate change that eventualy leave ecenomy-wide effects.
The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam (Arndt, Tarp, and Thurlow 2015) studies the economy-wide costs of climate risks for the case of VIetnam, mainly focused on water-basing related events such as floods and runoffs, streamflow influenciing the state of Hydropower generation and road infrastacture models. Which may be not as influential in the case of southwest central regions such as Navajo Nation. However the use of climate moisture index (CMI) impacting the agricultural crop yield is supporting the idea of taking temperature, precipitatipn, and humidity into one solid metric of cliamte change.
list of variables monitored in the model: - crop yields (mt/ha) - irrigation coverage (%) - road network lentght (km)
For the sector level studies on the economy of Vietnam affected by climate change, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is deployed. CGE functions as a simulation of market economy. - labor - capital - commodities It states that each sector is reffered from a source: - Water, agriculture, and hydropower - Road infrastructure - Cyclones and storm surge
| Category | Mean (billions) | 95% CI (billions) |
|---|---|---|
| Health | USD 2600 | USD 350-USD 11 000 |
| Infrastructure | USD 220 | USD 140-USD 360 |
| Labor | USD 51 | USD 6.7-USD 220 |
| Electricity | USD 22 | USD 9.3-USD 35 |
| Agriculture | USD 6.1 | USD 0.42-USD 19 |
| Ecosystems + recreation | USD 4.0 | USD 1.6-USD 7.5 |
| Total in FrEDI | USD 2900 | USD 510-USD 12 000 |
Energy-Climate Models
Louie et al. (2023):
“Some homes are as far as 70 km from the grid. There is little expectation that the grid will be extended to reach all the homes, with the estimated cost exceeding $350 million (Bain, Ballentine, DeSouza, Majure, Smith, & Turek, 2004). At the present rate of grid extension, it will be 40 years before every home is connected (Gallucci, 2019)”
Louie et al. (2023):
“The financial terms for the users may also influence the higher consumption, as most mini-grid users pay by the kilowatthour, whereas the users of the NTUA systems pay a flat monthly rate. Still, the energy use of the off-grid homes on the Navajo Nation is modest when compared to the average grid-connected user consumption in nearby New Mexico of 21 kWh/day (Energy Information Administration, 2022).”
Fant et al. (2012) #### IAMs that CliCrop is part of their data chain - IGSM - EPPA - WRS - CliCrop - DSSAT