Weekly Report 2

Monday 06/04 to 06/10

Highlights

• Weekly readings:
  • A SIMPLE crop model (Zhao et al. 2019)

    • Phenology:

      • \(\Delta TT\)
      • CERES-wheat: a user-oriented wheat yield model (Ritchie, Godwin, and Otter-Nacke 1985)

    • Growth:

      • Biomass rate
      • Harvest Index
      • Yield

    • \(\text{Biomass}_{\text{rate}} = \text{Radiation} \times f_{\text{Solar}} \times \text{RUE} \times f(\text{CO}_2) \times f(\text{Temp}) \times \min(f(\text{Heat}), f(\text{Water}))\)

    • \(\text{Biomass}_{\text{cum}_{i+1}} = \text{Biomass}_{\text{cum}_i} + \text{Biomass}_{\text{rate}}\)

    • \(\text{Yield} = \text{Biomass}_{\text{cum}_{\text{maturity}}} \times \text{HI}\)

      where:

      • \(\text{Radiation}\) is the incoming solar radiation.
      • \(f_{\text{Solar}}\) is the fraction of solar radiation available.
      • \(\text{RUE}\) is the Radiation Use Efficiency.
      • \(f(\text{CO}_2)\) is the function of carbon dioxide concentration.
      • \(f(\text{Temp})\) is the function of temperature.
      • \(f(\text{Heat})\) is the function of heat stress.
      • \(f(\text{Water})\) is the function of water availability.
      • \(\text{HI}\) is the Harvest Index.
• Crop models and their use in assessing crop production and food security: A review (Gavasso-Rita et al. 2024)
• Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates (Zhao et al. 2017)

Research: Model Design: - Implanted SIMPLE model with climate data for Wheat, Corn, Potato, Beans - Simple growth model: - Temperature - in process - Literature review process - in process - Model Design - Not started - executable code

Highlights from the past:

Literature review

What are the crops grown in the region?

• Three distinct climates are to be found within the Navajo Reservation: the cold humid climate of the heights, the steppe climate of the mesas and the high plains, and the comparatively warm desert, including the lower portions of the Chaco and Chinle Valleys and all of the southern, western, and northwestern parts of the Reservation.
  • Eight percent of the area is classed as humid
  • 37 percent as steppe
  • 55 percent as desert
• Temperatures in the humid zone average from 43 to 50 degrees, with a low of 4 degrees and a high of 80. The annual rainfall there is from 16 to 27 inches, and the growing season averages 95 days. The steppe zone has an annual temperature range from 45 to 50 degrees with a low of 10 degrees and a high of 88. Annual rainfall is from 12 to 16 inches, and the growing season averages 147 days.
• Finally, the desert-zone temperatures average 50 to 60 degrees, with a low of 11 degrees and a high of 110. Annual rainfall is between 7 and 11 inches, and the growing season averages 173 days. (Source: Navajo Ways in Government: A Study in Political Process. Contributors: Mary Shepardson - author. Publisher: American Anthropological Association. Place of Publication: Menasha, WI. Publication Year: 1963.)

What are the main crops grown in this climate?

• Sheep and goat farming has more to do than farming. (Source: Navajo County, AZ - Agricultural and Resource Economics Arizona County Agricultural Economy Profiles University of Arizona Cooperative Extension)
• Alfalfa
  • Forage
• Corn
  • Blue/White/Yellow Corn Products, Juniper Ash, Sumac Berries, and Green Chile
  • Livestock Feed
• Wheat
  • Flour (Majority)
  • Livestock Feed
• Potatoes
  • Russets, reds, yellows, and purple
  • The NAPI farm has an ideal environment for center pivot irrigation on sandy to sandy-loam soil at an elevation of 5,300-5,800 feet above sea level.
• Beans
  • Pinto Beans
  • Dry Beans (Source: https://napi.navajopride.com/history/crops/)

What is the irrigation method for the crops?

• Navajo County: Based on 2015 USGS estimates of water use, agriculture accounted for 38.3% of Navajo County water withdrawals. Agricultural irrigation use in Navajo County is dominated by the production of crops. In 2015, an estimated 5,029 acre-feet (AF) was sourced from groundwater for agricultural production and 4,850 AF was sourced from surface water. An acre-foot is the amount of water required to cover one acre one foot deep in water. Irrigated crop production is concentrated in Snowflake and Joseph City. Groundwater and surface water both decreased between 2010 and 2015, and total irrigated acreage is estimated to have declined significantly between 2010 and 2015. (Source: Navajo County, AZ - Agricultural and Resource Economics Arizona County Agricultural Economy Profiles University of Arizona Cooperative Extension)

How does climate impact agriculture and, accordingly, the economy?

The 2023 Hawaii Agricultural Disaster Survey, conducted by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, estimated that in August 2023, wildfires and high winds caused $23.1 million in damages to Hawaii’s agricultural producers. The losses included: - $5.1 million in reduced sales revenue - $3.9 million in agritourism revenue loss - $75,000 in livestock deaths - $5.4 million in crop damages - $8.5 million in property damages

The survey covered 728 producers in Hawaii and Maui counties. Producers reported significant damage to pastures and various crops, as well as property, highlighting the extensive impact on the agricultural sector. Despite the damages, the majority of producers reported no changes in their workforce, though some uncertainties about recovery time persist. (Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Hawaii Field Office. “Damage from Wildfires and High Winds on Hawaii Ag Producers Estimated at $23.1 Million.” 2023 Hawaii Agricultural Disaster Survey, January 26, 2024.)

Model Design: Climate - Agriculture - Economy

Extreme heat wave: a long period (2 to 3 days) of high heat and humidity with temperatures above 90 degrees (FEMA) * Cost of lost crops * Reduced yields * Livestock deaths

Equations:

• Demand side -> expected product demand
• Supply side -> water

Datasets

• FSA Crop Acreage Data Reported to FSA
  • 2023 acreage data:
    • County-level
• USDA-Wheat Data
• SMAP-Derived 1-km Downscaled Surface Soil Moisture Product V001

Questions

• How does the prototype look different from the Model Design?
• How do we approach the prototype at the end of each cycle?
• What are the tasks after the 5 (as many as the sectors) cycles will take approximately 5 weeks?

Suggestions

• You should prepare a plan for the period after the cycles are processed. We should not be stuck in a paused state of progress after we processed the first month of the research.
• The agricultural literature review should look for case-specific research considering the Navajo Nation crop types and regional climate conditions.
  • Navajo Nation is located in a desert land type, and precipitation may be the main factor in farming.
• It is okay to start with IAMs reading but at a deeper level related to agriculture and land use.

Self-assigned Tasks for this week

• Research Activity
  • Go on with the first “Climate to Agriculture and Land Use cycle.”
  • Read as many papers as possible each day and execute
• Regarding the research plan
  • Provide a complete (yet not perfect) picture of the research. Consider that other parallel projects will be underway soon, making it essential to have boundaries and specific expected outcomes of the final project products.

By the end of the week

• Literature Review updated with:
  • Papers for equations
    • CliCrop
  • 5 papers for general studies
• An updated model design added visuals
• An initial prototype
• A table of objective values based on the datasets and the equations

Reminders

• Select papers to read:
  • Impacts of temperature increase and change in precipitation pattern on crop yield and yield quality of barley
  • Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment
  • The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam
  • A 2007 social accounting matrix (SAM) for Vietnam
  • CliCrop: a Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Model Approach
• Friday 05/31/2024:
  • BEE Coffee hour: Bring ideas and questions to Michael

References

Gavasso-Rita, Yohanne Larissa, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Yanping Li, Amin Elshorbagy, Zhenhua Li, and Corinne Schuster-Wallace. 2024. “Crop Models and Their Use in Assessing Crop Production and Food Security: A Review.” Food and Energy Security 13 (1): e503.

Ritchie, JT, DC Godwin, and S Otter-Nacke. 1985. “CERES-Wheat: A User-Oriented Wheat Yield Model. Preliminary Documentation. AGRISTARS Publication No.” YM-U3-04442-JSC-18892. Michigan State University, Michigan.

Zhao, Chuang, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, David B Lobell, Yao Huang, Mengtian Huang, et al. 2017. “Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (35): 9326–31.

Zhao, Chuang, Bing Liu, Liujun Xiao, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Kenneth J. Boote, Belay T. Kassie, Willingthon Pavan, et al. 2019. “A SIMPLE Crop Model.” European Journal of Agronomy 104: 97–106. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.01.009.